Ngesonto eledlule, imakethe icabange ukuthi i-yuan isondela ku-7 yuan kuya kudola ngemuva kokwehla kwesibili okubukhali konyaka okuqale ngo-Agasti 15.
Ngomhlaka-15 Septhemba, i-yuan yasogwini yehla ngaphansi kwama-yuan angu-7 kuya kudola laseMelika, okwasusa ingxoxo eshubile yemakethe.Kusukela ngehora le-10 ngoSepthemba 16, i-yuan yasogwini ihweba ngo-7.0327 idola.Kungani liphinde laphuka u-7?Okokuqala, inkomba yedola yashaya phezulu.Ngo-September 5, inkomba yedola yeqa izinga le-110 futhi, yashaya iminyaka engu-20 ephezulu.Lokhu ikakhulukazi kubangelwa izici ezimbili: isimo sezulu esibi kakhulu sakamuva eYurophu, ukungezwani kwamandla okubangelwa izingxabano zezwe, kanye nokulindela ukwehla kwamandla emali okubangelwa ukusimama kwamanani entengo kagesi, konke okuye kwavuselela ubungozi bokuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni wonke;Okwesibili, amazwi kaSihlalo we-Fed u-Powell “ukhozi” emhlanganweni waminyaka yonke webhange eliphakathi e-Jackson Hole ngo-August aphinde aphakamisa ukulindela kwezinga lenzalo.
Okwesibili, ubungozi bezomnotho baseChina bukhulile.Ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, kube nezinto eziningi ezithinta ukuthuthukiswa komnotho: ukuqubuka kabusha kwalolu bhubhane ezindaweni eziningi kube nomthelela ngqo ekuthuthukisweni komnotho;Igebe phakathi kokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa kukagesi kwezinye izindawo kuyaphoqeleka ukuthi kunqanyulwe ugesi, okuthinta ukusebenza komnotho okujwayelekile;Imakethe yezindlu nezindlu ithintwe “igagasi lokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla”, futhi izimboni eziningi ezihlobene nazo ziye zathinteka.Ukukhula komnotho kubhekene nokuntenga kulo nyaka.
Ekugcineni, ukwehlukana kwenqubomgomo yezimali phakathi kweChina ne-United States kuye kwajula, izinga lenzalo lesikhathi eside elisabalala phakathi kweChina ne-United States likhule ngokushesha, futhi izinga elihlanekezelwe lesivuno soMgcinimafa liye lajula.Ukwehla okusheshayo kokusabalala phakathi kwamabhondi e-US kanye namaShayina weminyaka eyi-10 kaMgcinimafa ukusuka ku-113 BP ekuqaleni konyaka kuya ku- -65 BP ngoSepthemba 1 kuye kwaholela ekwehleni okuqhubekayo kwezibopho zasekhaya ezibanjwa yizikhungo zakwamanye amazwe.Eqinisweni, njengoba i-US yandisa umgomo wayo wezezimali kanye nedola laphakama, ezinye izinhlobo zemali ezibekiwe kubhasikidi we-SDR(Special Drawing Rights) zawela ngokumelene nedola., i-yuan yasogwini ihwebe ngo-7.0163 kuya kudola.
Uzoba yini umthelela we-RMB “breaking 7″ kumabhizinisi ohwebo lwangaphandle?
Amabhizinisi angenisayo: Ingabe izindleko zizonyuka?
Izizathu ezibalulekile zalo mjikelezo wokwehla kwe-RMB uma kuqhathaniswa nedola zisalokhu: ukwanda ngokushesha komehluko wezinga lenzalo lesikhathi eside phakathi kweChina ne-United States, kanye nokulungiswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali e-United States.
Uma sibhekene nesizinda sokwazisa kwedola laseMelika, ezinye izinhlobo zemali ezibekiwe kubhasikidi we-SDR(Special Drawing Rights) zonke zehle kakhulu uma ziqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-August, i-euro yehle ngo-12%, iphawundi laseBrithani lehla ngo-14%, iYen yaseJapane yehla ngo-17%, kwathi i-RMB yehla ngo-8%.
Uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izinhlobo zemali ezingewona amadola, ukwehla kwenani le-yuan kube kuncane uma kuqhathaniswa.Kubhasikidi we-SDR, ngaphezu kokwehla kwedola laseMelika, i-RMB ibonga kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nezimali okungezona ezedola laseMelika, futhi akukho ukwehla okuphelele kwe-RMB.
Uma amabhizinisi angenisa impahla kwamanye amazwe esebenzisa ukukhokhelwa kwedola, izindleko zawo ziyakhuphuka;Kodwa izindleko zokusebenzisa i-euro, i-sterling ne-yen empeleni ziyancipha.
Kusukela ngo-10 ekuseni Septhemba 16, i-euro yayihweba ngo-7.0161 yuan;Iphawundi lihweba ngo-8.0244;I-yuan ihwebe ngo-20.4099 yen.
Amabhizinisi athekelisa: Umthelela omuhle wezinga lokushintshisana unomkhawulo
Emabhizinisini athumela ngaphandle ikakhulukazi asebenzisa ukukhokhelwa kwedola laseMelika, akungabazeki ukuthi ukwehla kwenani le-renminbi kuletha izindaba ezinhle, indawo yenzuzo yebhizinisi ingathuthukiswa kakhulu.
Kodwa izinkampani ezihlala kwezinye zezimali ezivamile zisadinga ukubeka iso elibukhali emazingeni okushintshanisa imali.
Emabhizinisini amancane naphakathi nendawo, kufanele sinake ukuthi isikhathi senzuzo yesilinganiso sokushintshisana siyahambisana yini nesikhathi sokubala.Uma kukhona ukugudluka, umthelela omuhle wezinga lokushintshisana ngeke ubonakale.
Ukushintshashintsha kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwemali kungase futhi kubangele amakhasimende ukuba alindele ukwazisa kwedola, okuholela ekucindezelweni kwentengo, ukubambezeleka kwenkokhelo nezinye izimo.
Amabhizinisi adinga ukwenza umsebenzi omuhle ekulawuleni ubungozi nokuphatha.Akufanele baphenye kuphela isizinda samakhasimende ngokuningiliziwe, kodwa futhi, lapho kudingekile, bathathe izinyathelo ezinjengokwandisa ngokufanelekile ingxenye yediphozithi, ukuthenga umshwalense wesikweletu sohwebo, ukusebenzisa i-RMB settlement ngokusemandleni, ukuvala izinga lokushintshisana ngokusebenzisa “hedging” kanye ukunciphisa isikhathi sokufaneleka kwentengo ukuze kulawulwe umthelela omubi wokuguquguquka kwezinga lokushintshisana.
03 Amathiphu okukhokhela uhwebo lwangaphandle
Ukushintshashintsha kwezinga lokushintshisana kuyinkemba esika nhlangothi zombili, amanye amabhizinisi ohwebo angaphandle aseqalile ukulungisa "ukushintshaniswa kwesikhiya" kanye namanani entengo ukuthuthukisa ukuncintisana kwawo.
Amathiphu e-IPayLinks: Umnyombo wokulawulwa kwezinga lokushintshisana ulele “ekulondolozeni” kunokuthi “ekuthokozeleni”, futhi “isikhiya sokushintshisana” (uhedi) ithuluzi elivame ukusetshenziswa kakhulu lokubiyela izinga lokushintshanisa okwamanje.
Mayelana nethrendi yesilinganiso sokushintshisana se-RMB uma iqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika, amabhizinisi ahweba kwamanye amazwe angagxila emibikweni efanele yomhlangano wokusetha izinga lenzalo ye-Federal Reserve FOMC ngoSepthemba 22, ngesikhathi sase-Beijing.
Ngokusho kwe-CME's Fed Watch, amathuba okuthi i-Fed inyuse izilinganiso zenzalo ngamaphoyinti angu-75 ngoSepthemba angama-80%, futhi amathuba okunyusa inzalo ngamaphoyinti angu-100 angu-20%.Kunamathuba angu-36% okwanda kwamaphuzu angu-125 ngoNovemba, amathuba angu-53% okunyuka kwamaphuzu angu-150 kanye namathuba angu-11% okunyuka kwamaphuzu angu-175.
Uma i-Fed iqhubeka nokukhuphula izinga lenzalo ngendluzula, inkomba yedola laseMelika izophinde ikhuphuke kakhulu futhi idola laseMelika lizoqina, okuzoqhubeka nokwandisa ukucindezela kokwehla kwe-RMB nezinye zezimali ezivamile ezingezona zase-US.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-20-2022